Chelsea returned from the World Cup break on Tuesday with a comfortable 2-0 victory at the Bridge against another promoted team, Bournemouth, and remain eighth, six points shy of fourth-placed Tottenham but with a game in hand. Forest, beaten 3-0 at Old Trafford the same day, currently occupy the middle relegation slot.

• Who is back for Chelsea?

• Where to watch the game

• 2022 in numbers

A winter World Cup presents uncharted territory. It is too early to detect post-Qatar trends but five of the six clubs with the most players on duty at the World Cup finals (Chelsea 12, Man City 16, Man United 13, Arsenal 10 and Brighton 8) all won their first game back – the exception being Spurs (11). Many beat one of the five outfits who had the most squad members still at home: Bournemouth, Palace, Southampton (all 2), Leeds (3), Aston Villa and Everton (4) – each of whom returned to action with a loss.

Chelsea and Forest both had a key player substituted through injury during this week’s games in Reece James and Jesse Lingard. Teams can remodel their squads as the transfer window is open from Sunday up to 11pm on Tuesday 31 January. The Londoners have already agreed a deal with Molde for skilful 20-year-old Ivory Coast forward David Datro Fofana.

As to the here and now, only four Premier League teams have lost more times on home soil this season than Forest (four), and only three clubs have conceded more home league goals (11, including eight after half-time).

Chelsea, meanwhile, are targeting three points on the road for the first time since Aston Villa in mid-October. The Blues have won the last seven in succession in all competitions against Forest, though, including a league ‘double’ in 1998/99.

Chelsea team news

There was plenty to savour about our return to action on Tuesday, where many of our World Cup returnees had a good day. The dampener on celebrations was the loss of Reece James for up to four weeks, the defender having shown his worth again after two-and-a-half months out.

Until the impressive right-back limped off we had witnessed perhaps the Blues’ best home performance since Milan. Switched to a back four with Thiago Silva and Kali Koulibaly at centre-back, Graham Potter’s men comfortably handled a subdued Bournemouth with little fuss (despite the occasional errant pass).

In those initial 60 minutes Denis Zakaria brought balance, energy and a physical presence to the Blues’ midfield in his first league start, while Kepa Arrizabalaga registered his first clean sheet at the Bridge since the 3-0 win against Wolves in early October. He currently has the second-best saves-per-shot rate of all Premier League goalies (82.8 per cent).

A goal and assist for Kai Havertz and Mason Mount’s curled completion suggested the formula upfront was well-chosen, too. Mount’s 27th goal, alongside his 24 assists, places him alongside Eden Hazard as Chelsea’s only under-25s to have been involved in 50 or more Premier League goals.

Havertz started as the main striker with Raheem Sterling impressive on the right flank, where he is more likely to maintain width and beat his man for a cross. A key feature of the performance was the ability to use the sides of the pitch efficiently and create chances against Bournemouth’s deep and narrow defence, likely to be similar to Forest’s approach on Sunday.

James was instrumental in that success, though, and with him unavailable, Cesar Azpilicueta could step into the same system – Potter’s team lost the last two away league games starting with a back three. Third-place World Cup medallist Mateo Kovacic returns to the matchday roster this weekend along with another standout Qatar performer, Hakim Ziyech. Edou Mendy could be back in contention.

Definitely out are Armando Broja and N’Golo Kante, and this fixture may come a little too early for Ben Chilwell, Wes Fofana and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

Scouting the opposition: Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest set a British record of 22 incoming players during the summer transfer window – virtually one for every year they have been absent from the Premier League (20 squad members also moved on from the City Ground).

Steve Cooper had taken a club lying bottom of the Championship in September to elevation through the play-off final in May. The Welsh coach at first stuck to his attacking principles in the Premier League, but Forest threw away leads to Fulham and Bournemouth, and let in six against Man City and four at Leicester.

Hit by injuries and the need for points, he has since adopted a more defensive mindset. Despite playing at home, which has yielded 91 per cent of the Reds’ league goals (10 of 11), and 85 per cent of their 13 points, Cooper is likely to retain the same narrow and compact watchful approach as in the defeat at Old Trafford.

Their hard-working frontline and midfield, looking to regain possession high upfield, again lacked the precision to convert chances created. Forest have attempted the second-fewest attempts on goal in the top flight (153, above Bournemouth’s 131) and fewest shots on target (45).

Only Brentford have conceded more accurate shots on their goal than Forest’s 86, though, and Cooper bemoaned his team’s slack goal-area defending, not least at set-plays, which account for five of their goals conceded.

With four games to come against teams around them, former Man United forward Lingard, reportedly nursing a hamstring, may not be risked.

His absence would add to a list of Forest missing including Giulian Bancone, Morgan Gibbs-White, Cheikhou Kouyate, Moussa Niakhate and Omar Richards.

Chelsea’s games of four halves

The two goals before the break against Bournemouth last time out doubled the Blues’ first-half goals tally in the league at Stamford Bridge to four. Seven games in, the world champions are also yet to concede at home in the opening half, making it the best period, home or away, for Graham Potter’s side this season.

On the road, Chelsea’s most successful half as a standalone would be the second, where goals after the break at Crystal Palace and Aston Villa would have proved winners. The Blues’ worst session for conceding is the opening 45 away from home, which has produced eight goals for the hosts (four coming just before half-time) and a goal difference of -4.

Chelsea home and away record

New Year Blues

Chelsea’s most recent fixture on New Year’s Day itself, in 2020, produced a 1-1 draw at Brighton, Alireza Jahanbakhsh’s late equaliser cancelling out Cesar Azpilicueta’s early opener – the skipper’s first goal of the campaign.

Last season the Blues drew 2-2 with Liverpool on 2 January at the Bridge after trailing 0-2, Mateo Kovacic and Christian Pulisic finding the net just before the half-time whistle. On New Year’s Day 2005, this time at Anfield, the same opponents were memorably conquered 1-0 thanks to a late Joe Cole goal.

Half a century earlier in another title-winning season, 1954/55, a Roy Bentley brace delivered the traditional ‘pinch, punch first day of the month’ at Bolton, a huge 5-2 win.

There have been painfully few champagne moments in recent years. In fact, the Blues have not won the first league game of the year since Brazil-born trio Oscar, Willian and Diego Costa put three past Crystal Palace’s Wayne Hennessey (now a Nottingham Forest keeper) on 1 January 2016.

We have drawn four of the six year-openers since then, and last endured a longer spell without victory between 1929 and 1938. That inter-war run began after a 4-2 win at Blackpool in 1928, and ended with the same scoreline at home to Middlesbrough in 1939.

• By club historian Rick Glanvill and club statistician Paul Dutton