Held over from FA Cup semi-finals weekend, Chelsea’s rescheduled trip to ancient antagonists Leeds United, three days before the Wembley showpiece, has taken on extraordinary importance.

With one victory from the past five league games, the Blues are under pressure to find form and seal the deal on Champions League football next season, knowing four points from nine available will most likely suffice. Success tonight would be a much-needed boost in the three-way capital carve-up for third and fourth places ahead of tomorrow’s north London derby.

The hosts, who entered the top-flight twilight zone last weekend for the first time since September, have conceded at least once in each of their past 10 home games. The white rose club know as things stand, the season’s outcome is not in their hands.

As ever, history paints extra scenery for tonight’s performance and a desperate, ferocious crowd will be fuelled by the passion of past memories, not least our 1970 FA Cup final duels. More pertinently, in May 2004 the Whites’ last Premier League action for 16 years happened to be against the Blues. Eddie Gray’s already relegated outfit were beaten 1-0 by a club under new ownership and on a very different trajectory.

Chelsea could actually prove Leeds’ nemesis for the second time in four days: Our development squad’s late victory over Tottenham salvaged our PL2 status at the Whites’ expense.

Chelsea team news

There is plenty still to achieve in league and cup, though Chelsea keep finding different ways to stumble. Leeds will be banking on a team contesting the FA Cup final in three days’ time failing to match their desire and renowned aggression this evening.

Thomas Tuchel will hope to have midfielders N’Golo Kante and Jorginho available again but both are serious doubts, especially with the final so close. Finding the right balance of attacking verve, structural discipline and sturdiness in defence has proved elusive in recent matches. Matching the opponents’ hunger should be a given.

The Bavarian refuted the idea of any half-time bust-up with Marcos Alonso but the left wing-back may still sit this one out, as he did the second half against Wolves. Options to handle Leeds’ inverted winger Raphinha include a midfielder such as Saul, a right-sided player swapping flanks, or perhaps Christian Pulisic playing deeper than usual.

One huge positive from Saturday’s draw was the performance of Romelu Lukaku, whose two goals make him the Blues’ outright leading scorer across all competitions. Although a rested Mason Mount may come into the team, the Belgian seems likely to retain his starting role.

He can bully opponents, and teams have fruitfully targeted Leeds’ cagey passing out from the back – the charging-down of goalkeeper Ilan Meslier led directly to Arsenal’s opening goal in their most recent game.

Only Leicester (with 19) have conceded more goals from set-plays in all competitions than the Whites’ 18, while Chelsea have netted from 11 such situations.

Marsching on together

Leeds were in action a day after Chelsea and had 10 men for much of the game. The narrow loss to Arsenal makes tonight’s match do-or-die for Jesse Marsch’s troubled team.

‘Our backs are against the wall,’ he said ahead of Chelsea’s visit. ‘We've got to be better and fight even more.’ Yet indiscipline was their undoing at the Emirates: Luke Ayling saw red for serious foul play and careless moments helped set an unwelcome all-time record of 96 yellow cards accrued over a Premier League campaign.

It seems likely Marsch will set his team up in a condensed 5-4-1 formation for the Blues’ visit. His team play more of a contain and counter strategy than under Marcelo Bielsa, pressing to win the ball higher upfield and more centrally than before. Ditching the man-for-man marking has made them less vulnerable when possession is lost, but there are still spaces to exploit.

Ayling was their second skipper to receive his marching orders during their current Premier League stay, after Liam Cooper in a 2-1 win at Man City last season. Coincidentally, Cooper could return tonight alongside Diego Llorente and in games the central defender has played this season they have conceded around 40 per cent fewer goals.

The season has ended, though, for Ayling’s natural replacement at right-back Stuart Dallas, as well as box-to-boxer Adam Forshaw and forward Tyler Roberts. Dan James seems likely to cover in Ayling’s absence with Junior Firpo on the left of what is the league’s second leakiest defence (after Norwich).

Cobham alumnus Lewis Bate did well in midfield as a half-time substitute against Arsenal but striker Patrick Bamford is unlikely to be ready to face his former club. The Whites’ attack has sometimes lacked a focal point without our former Academy player leading the line. Right-winger Raphinha, with his arrowed crosses and corners, remains their biggest threat.

Late strikes

Conor Coady’s equaliser for Wolves, timed at 96 minutes and 22 seconds, was the latest Premier League goal Chelsea have conceded since Luis Suarez (for Liverpool at Anfield in April 2013) after 96 minutes and 30 seconds – also in a 2-2 draw. So far this season 71 per cent of Premier League goals the Blues have conceded were scored in the second half (22 of 31).

For their part, Leeds have conceded seven times in the last 10 minutes at Elland Road and the Londoners’ +4 goal difference on the road in that time period has been bettered only by Manchester City.

Race for places

Despite Saturday’s further setback, third or fourth place is still in Chelsea’s grasp, and results tonight and tomorrow, when Arsenal are at Tottenham, could well settle the matter.

Because the Blues’ goal difference is 25 better than the Gunners’ and 19 more than Spurs’, three of the nine possible outcomes from the two midweek fixtures would pretty much guarantee Thomas Tuchel’s men will play Champions League football next season.

Three other outcomes would leave the west Londoners needing only a draw from the two remaining home matches, while the worst-case scenario – a Blues loss and win for Spurs – would require four points from the six available against Leicester and Watford.

Leeds’ fellow strugglers Everton are also in action tonight, away to relegated Watford. Were the Toffees to win all four of their games they would finish on 47 points, four more than the maximum achievable by Burnley and Jesse Marsch’s men. Just one point separates all three, but Leeds have a vastly inferior goal difference.

Premier League results and fixtures

TuesdayAston Villa 1 Liverpool 2

WednesdayLeeds v Chelsea 7.30pm (Sky Sports)Leicester v Norwich 7.45pmWatford v Everton 7.45pmWolves v Man City 8.15pm (Sky Sports)

ThursdayTottenham v Arsenal 7.45pm (Sky Sports)